CBO expects prices in the individual market to rise by 10 or 12 percent, an expectation driven entirely by predictions that individuals will purchase policies that are much more comprehensive, and thus somewhat more expensive, then the insurance they can afford now. Then the CBO turns to look at the impact of the subsidies, which will cut premium costs by a bit over 50 percent for a bit over 50 percent of the market.

...Part of the increase in the type of insurance being purchased is the result of "people’s decisions to purchase more extensive coverage in response to the structure of subsidies." In other words, the change is driven by the subsidies, not offset by them.

To see this more clearly, imagine that the University of Florida decided to give incoming students who receive financial aid an $800 credit to purchase a laptop computer. You'd expect that the average computer purchased by students on financial aid would become a bit more expensive. But that wouldn't be because computers had become more expensive. It would be because people now had money to buy better computers.

...Premiums for the same policy in the individual market fall by 14 to 20 percent. But people in the individual market... will now have the opportunity to purchase better policies that cover more expenses and provide more security. That's a good thing. It's one of the reasons for health-care reform, in fact. And it is not analogous to health-care insurance becoming more expensive, any more than the fact that I could buy a nicer car after getting a better job suggests that cars are becoming more expensive.

Beyond that, it's important to remember that everyone has begun talking about the individual market results as if they are results for the whole of the health-care system.

...And after subsidies, most people are paying less and getting more than they would absent reform.
 

To put it another way, costs for the same plan on the individual market will go DOWN 14%-20%. Except that most people I know who are on the individual market have "catastrophic" coverage, which doesn't do much, and it's safer to have comprehensive coverage that won't drive a family into bankruptcy with a $10,000 deductible. Low and moderate income people will have subsidies to make insurance more affordable, so the out-of-pocket costs will actually be much less.

After all of the stories I've heard about how bad the current insurance situation is for many rural people with high deductible insurance, it will be a remarkable change to pay for insurance that will actually cover something if you get sick or injured.